The war with Iran: Part 2

The primary association that I have with this "12-day war", as a certain reality TV star dubbed it, is exhaustion.

Physical exhaustion, because of the constant interruptions in the middle of the night for incoming ballistic missiles. Mental exhaustion, from trying to keep track of everything going on and the constantly developing news and updates and alerts (and, of course, being expected to show up and pay attention in classes). And emotional exhaustion, from more and more stories of people killed or injured or evacuated or who lost all of their worldly possessions - and from the never-ending situation of being at war in Gaza, with 50 hostages still being held and soldiers being killed in combat. It all adds up, and the resulting brain fog and lack of energy does make it difficult to function.

In the previous post about this war, I mentioned that everything still felt mundane, and that's true - but it's also blanketed by that fog and exhaustion. It's a strange mixture of everyday life and sleepwalking, and it makes looking back on that time a challenge.

The reports are that this war has opened up opportunities. An opportunity for returning the hostages and ending the war in Gaza, which in turn opens up the chance for normalization with Saudi Arabia. There's also apparently an opportunity for signing some sort of agreement with Syria - something I personally would love to see, as a resident of the far north.

Cynically, one has to wonder what exactly about the war with Iran opened up these opportunities. The party line is that Middle Eastern countries respect strength and that Israel displayed its strength. But on the other hand, normalization with Saudi Arabia was on the horizon before the war with Hamas - the remaining obstacle was reputedly a viable path to a Palestinian state, a lowered stance from the actual establishment of a Palestinian state, which didn't sit well with Hamas and provided another reason for them to attack on Oct 7. Almost as soon as the Assad regime fell, back channel talks with the new leaders in Syria started behind closed doors and slowly opened up; there were serious negotiations happening before the war with Iran.

So if those opportunities also existed before this "12-day-war", what changed on the ground? Local politics.
The war with Iran was a big win for the current Israeli government. Taking out the Islamic Republic's nuclear program and ballistic missile stores was seen as something that almost entire country could get behind, and so the government scored brownie points. A deal in Gaza is something that's unfortunately a lot more controversial, with the far-right elements in the coalition threatening to collapse the government if such a deal happens. And so, if the current government stores up enough multipartisan support through the conflict with Iran, perhaps that's what it needs to win votes again if we do head to elections. Perhaps the government now thinks they have enough political capital to survive making a hostage deal, which is a sad sentence to write.

The ceasefire with the Islamic Republic went into effect very suddenly, leaving a lot of questions about what was actually accomplished, and what opportunities were missed.

The Americans got involved, dropped a few bombs, and then declared that it was over. After the Islamic Republic then violated the terms of that declaration - sending me personally to sit in the bomb shelter yet again - POTUS then demanded that Israel not respond, and Israel more-or-less acquiesced.

I find it hard to believe that 12 days was enough to actually set back the nuclear program in Iran by a significant amount of time. Of course, there's no way to know for sure, but enriched uranium and plutonium still exists, they can repair the facilities, and even if a small number of nuclear scientists were taken out, there are more. There's certainly more global attention now, particularly after the IAEA reported that the Islamic Republic was in violation of their regulations. Is that enough? I hope so, but I'm not particularly optimistic.

There was also a lot of hope that the Islamic regime in Iran would fall as a result of the war - in Israel definitely, and allegedly within Iran itself as well. Unfortunately, that didn't happen, but it was probably a misplaced hope in the first place; it's extremely difficult to topple a regime from the outside. The people in Tehran living with Israeli bombardment are unlikely to support what is seen as an Israeli attempt to topple their government; they may not be fans of the regime, but an outside enemy attacking isn't going to cause people to support the outside enemy, and is more likely to increase support for the government.

And, of course, Gaza. The families of hostages were pushing loudly and strongly to tie any sort of ceasefire with Iran with a hostage deal in Gaza, given that Iran is one of the primary backers and funders of Hamas, aside from Qatar (and in the past Israel looking for an alternative to Fatah). Such a tie-in didn't happen, and the ceasefire went into effect leaving 50 hostages still in Hamas's hands.

What happens now? Will there be an agreement with Hamas? Syria? Saudi Arabia? Time will tell. In the meantime, the sirens aren't quite over; rockets are still - somehow, inexplicably - being launched from the flattened Strip, and the Houthis haven't forgotten about us. Thousands of people have been left without a roof over their heads. Quiet - and proper rest - will have to wait a while yet.